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Tuesday,
18 May 2004
People
& Politics/ Akiva Eldar |
The final decision regarding Yasser Arafat's fate is in Ariel
Sharon's hands. Abu Mazen's short-lived experience as prime minister shows
Sharon likes his Arafat strong, besieged and making trouble from the Muqata.
The Israeli public meanwhile is ready, under certain circumstances, to
swallow Arafat. A poll of 824 Israelis conducted by New Wave last month
showed that 26 percent support negotiations with Arafat, once he declares he
is ready to sign a peace agreement in the spirit of the road map, Geneva
Initiative or the People's Voice petition. Twenty-two percent support
negotiations with Arafat if he first condemns terror. Forty-four percent -
less than half the Israelis, have erased Arafat from the agenda. However, 68
percent of the Israeli public supports immediate renewal of the negotiations
over the final status agreement and 28 percent oppose it. Among new
immigrants from the CIS, the numbers are reversed: 58 percent oppose
negotiations and 36 percent are in favor.
Another poll, conducted at the same time by the Steinmetz Center at Tel Aviv
University, in cooperation with the University of Maryland, found similar
levels of support for withdrawals from the territories, without any
negotiations. The 576 Israelis were asked the following question: It has
recently been reported that the government intends to unilaterally disengage
from the Gaza Strip. What is your opinion of a similar disengagement from
the West Bank under the following conditions:
- The new border will approximate the Green Line with minor changes so that
Israeli sovereignty includes territory where some 75 percent of the Judea
and Samaria settlers reside.
- In return for territories annexed by Israel, the Palestinians receive from
Israel territories on the same scale.
- This unilateral move will only take place if the United States is able to
obtain from the United Nations Security Council recognition of Israel as a
Jewish State within these boundaries.
- Negotiations over Jerusalem, Refugees and other issues will
take place at a later stage.
The results of the poll: 47.7 percent said they were in favor of the plan,
which is the brainchild of Dr. Jerome Segal of the University of Maryland,
and 35.9 percent were against. Particularly surprising was the marginal
difference between the general public and that of the Likud rank and file,
who supported the plan by 45.6 percent against 37.4 percent who were
opposed. But 77.8 percent of those who said they voted Shas oppose the plan,
and National Religious Party and National Union voters were 75 percent
opposed.
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