June 19, 2002
Jerome M. Segal
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It is
abundantly clear why Prime Minister Sharon has not put forward any proposal
for dealing with final status issues. Sharon came into office rejecting
almost all of the ideas put forward by President Clinton in December 2000.
This included sharing Jerusalem, Palestinian control of the Haram al-Sharif,
withdrawal from all of Gaza and most of the West Bank, territorial
contiguity, and land swaps. On all of these issues, the American position is
much closer to the Palestinian position than to Sharon's. Sharon's strategy
is one of lowering expectations -- he believes that if enough time goes by,
perhaps a decade or more, Palestinians will settle for much less than what
was proposed by Clinton, and largely accepted by Barak.
But if Sharon's motives for avoiding final status issues are clear, how does
one explain the absence of any concrete diplomatic initiatives from the
Palestinian side? Of course, one knows in advance that Sharon would reject
any proposal that was acceptable to the Palestinians, but this is not the
point. With a creative initiative the Palestinian leadership can shift the
debate onto its strongest terrain -- final peace arrangements. To do so
would win widespread support within Europe and the United States, and would
introduce a powerful new dynamic within Israeli politics.
What might a Palestinian proposal look like? One alterantive is to come
forward with a comprehensive plan that addresses all of the issues and
proposes to end the conflict. For such a plan to be taken seriously it would
have to be realistic about refugees -- accepting that almost none will ever
return to Israel itself, and accepting that Israel will never affirm, even
in principle, a Palestinian right of return to Israel. In addition, a
comprehensive plan would have to develop some creative way of dealing with
the Haram al Sharif/Temple Mount. Israelis are prepared to accept
Palestinian control over the Haram; they would even accept joint sovereignty
or say that it was under the Sovereignty of God. But they will not except
that it is simply under the sovereignty of the Palestinian State.
If the Palestinian leadership is not prepared to put forward a comprehensive
plan that addresses these issues in a way that is acceptable to a majority
of the Israeli public, then there is another alternative. Make the Israelis
an offer they can't refuse on the territorial question.
By a significant majority the Israeli public today favors unilateral
separation. There are many variants of this idea, but they all have in
common that Israel would unilaterally withdraw from some of the occupied
territories, but not all of it. Possibly Israel would evacuate some
settlements as well. And on some proposals, it would allow a Palestinian
state to emerge on the territory left behind.
Despite public support, most Israeli security analysts oppose unilateral
separation for three basic reasons. First, it gives up land, without getting
peace in exchange. Second, because it involves only a partial withdrawal, it
does not lead to stability. And third, as a response to violence, it will
make heroes out of those who have led the attacks on Israel and will lead to
even more attacks. For these reasons, despite public support, unilateral
separation is unlikely to occur. Israel may build a security fence, but
Israelis will be on both sides of it.
Suppose however, that the Palestinian leadership put forward the following
plan for "mutually agreeable permanent separation":
1. The issues
of Jerusalem and refugees will be deferred until three years after a
Palestinian State emerges. At that time they will be taken up on a
state-to-state basis with Jerusalem subject to the Clinton parameter, "What
is Jewish will be Israeli, what is Arab will be Palestinian."
2.
Immediately, Israel and the Palestinians will enter into binding
arbitration of the final territorial line that will separate the two states.
The exact line will be determined by an Arbitration Panel, subject to the
following framework:
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The Palestinian State will include all of the Gaza Strip
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It will include a minimum of 95% of the West Bank
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Israel will provide territorial swaps of equal extent and equal quality for
any part of the West Bank that is annexed to Israel.
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The Palestinian State will have territorial contiguity, and a border with
Jordan.
3. This
determination of the final boundary can be made either by the five permanent
members of the United Nations Security Council, or by the Quartet (the US,
the UN, Russia and the EU), of by a special commission under American
auspices, such as the Mitchell Commission.
4. Once the
boundary is determined, Israel will within 18 months evacuate all
settlements on the Palestinan side, leaving the settlements in good
condition. The value of the housing left behind will be counted as credit in
any compensation arrangement dealing with the refugee problem.
5. When Israel
evacuates the territory, a United Nations Trusteeship will go into place for
twelve months. During this period of time a provisional government of the
Palestinian state will be formed. The trusteeship will be lifted after
twelve months provided that the new government:
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Recognizes Israel as a Jewish State.
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Accepts international monitors to ensure that there is no importation of
weapons.
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Demonstrates that it has de facto sovereignty by disarming all non-state
actors.
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Demonstrates its commitment to peaceful co-existence with Israel.
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Accepts this territorial line as the end of the territorial dimension of the
conflict, except for Jerusalem which will be subject to negotiation.
6. When the
Trusteeship is lifted, the State of Palestine will join the community of
nations, as symbolized through its admission to the United Nations. All
further issues will be resolved through state-to-state negotiations, on a
basis of mutual respect and equality.
A
proposal of this sort would transform the conflict. Within Israel it would
divide the hardliners who oppose genuine Palestinian statehood from the
majority who are prepared to live in peace with a Palestinan state.
Internationally, it would isolate the Sharon government in just the way he
has tried to isolate the Palestinians. It would be a basis for massive
support within Europe and the United States. Within Israel, the next
Israeli elections would be a referendum on saying "Yes" to the Palestinians.
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